17-March-2026

The dry bulk market may be approaching a period of tighter grain availability in the months ahead, a development that could place pressure on demand. As the crisis in the Middle East continues, with ongoing conflict and energy markets dominating international attention, the consequences of this major upheaval are extending into other sectors as well, including dry bulk, where fertilizer trade has emerged as one of the commodity groups facing the strongest disruption. QatarEnergy stated last week that its Ras Laffan facility had halted production of sulphur, ammonia, and urea after deciding to suspend LNG output following a drone strike, removing a major source of fertilizer supply from the international market. For perspective, QatarEnergy alone exported 5.4 million tons of urea in 2025, accounting for about 10% of global exports. At the same time, Iran has shut down domestic ammonia production capacity, while other producers in the region are considering output reductions because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The dry bulk market responded quickly to these developments, sending fertilizer prices markedly higher, because the Middle East and the Persian Gulf (PG) function as a crucial centre for fertilizer trade. Large seaborne fertilizer volumes pass through the Strait of Hormuz, including roughly 25% of global seaborne nitrogen exports, 45% of sulphur exports, and about 10% of phosphorus exports. The main exporters in the region are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, shipping mainly sulphur, ammonia, and urea, while major destinations include India, West Africa (WAFR), and Southeast Asia (SEAS). Natural gas is a major driver of the fertilizer market because it serves both as the principal feedstock and the main energy source in production. Natural gas generally accounts for 60-70% of variable nitrogen fertilizer costs, making output extremely sensitive to fluctuations in gas prices. Any sharp increase in prices immediately raises production expenses and may force plants to cut output or suspend operations temporarily. The halt in Qatari natural gas production and the resulting surge in benchmark prices forced countries in the Subcontinent, which depend heavily on Qatari LNG, to scale back fertilizer production after gas flows were interrupted. In India, fertilizer production declined as several producers reduced output, while in Bangladesh, five of the six main urea plants were forced to stop operating. Since the fertilizer market is closely connected to grain production, the present disruption is arriving at an especially critical time, coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere spring planting season, the annual peak for global nitrogen fertilizer demand. Higher fertilizer prices, shipment delays, and rising freight costs, made even worse by soaring bunker prices, are likely to force farmers either to reduce nutrient application or absorb much higher input costs. Unlike oil, fertilizers do not have meaningful strategic reserves, leaving agricultural markets vulnerable to supply shortages, since even modest cuts in fertilizer use can reduce yields of staple crops such as corn, wheat, and rice. For the global economy, the impact of disruptions in fertilizer trade is likely to emerge with a 6-9 month delay through weaker crop yields. This could lead to higher food inflation, tighter grain inventories, and greater food security risks for import-dependent countries, while also creating broader macroeconomic price pressure. For dry bulk shipping, the immediate impact on demand is likely to remain limited, because fertilizers account for only about 4% of global dry bulk trade and are mainly carried by smaller and mid-sized bulk carriers, which dominate fertilizer seaborne transportation. However, weaker grain output caused by reduced crop nutrient use could soften dry bulk demand later in 2026, as smaller harvests would reduce seaborne cargo volumes. In conclusion, the intensifying war in the Middle East and rising pressure at a vital maritime chokepoint once again demonstrate how deeply interconnected commodity markets are and how exposed they remain to geopolitical disruption.

 

 

17-November-2025

USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) trims its U.S. soybean export forecast as China continues to bypass American cargoes in favour of South American supplies. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly reduced its U.S. soybean export outlook for the current marketing season on Friday after China — the world’s largest soybean buyer — largely avoided U.S. shipments, relying instead on Brazilian and Argentine exports amid its ongoing trade tensions with the USA. The USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) now estimates U.S. soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels for the 2025/2026 (September/August) marketing cycle, 50 million bushels lower than the September projection. This represents a 13% slide from 2024 levels. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that export commitments through late September were down 36% year-on-year, underscoring China’s near-total absence from the U.S. soybean market. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) also published a backlog of daily export sales accumulated during the U.S. government shutdown, revealing that 1.348 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were sold from October 2 to November 12. Of these, 332,000 metric tons were confirmed sales to China. Weak international appetite for U.S. soybeans pushed domestic prices to nearly five-year lows earlier this autumn before optimism surrounding renewed U.S.-China negotiations triggered a sharp upswing in mid-October. This rebound finally gave American farmers an opportunity to market their crop at the highest levels seen this season after months of unprofitable conditions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced that China had promised to resume U.S. soybean purchases — pledging imports of 12 million metric tons this year — following a late-October meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Yet China has not officially confirmed any commitments from the talks, and its buying activity so far has been minimal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipates that Chinese purchases will accelerate, but noted that cheaper South American supply continues to weigh heavily against American exports, especially after the strong price rally since mid-October. “Since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between the U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the United States no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said. Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade deepened losses on Friday after the release of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) numbers, falling about 1.4% by midday to roughly $11.31 per bushel. One striking detail is that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) made no changes to its soybean export or crush projections — the only significant revision came from production adjustments.

 

 

23-October-2025

China’s soybean import landscape deteriorated sharply in September 2025. For the first time since 2018, not a single cargo of U.S.-sourced soybeans was unloaded at Chinese terminals, as traders overwhelmingly shifted their focus to Brazilian and Argentine supplies. The collapse in U.S. export volumes came in parallel with a surge in South American shipments and a spike in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures, driven by renewed optimism surrounding potential progress in U.S.–China trade discussions. U.S. soybean flows to China, which had peaked at around 4.1 million tons in January 2025, fell to 2.7 million tons in February and completely dried up by September. The contrast with 2024 could not be clearer, with customs data verifying zero arrivals of U.S. soybeans during the month. Argentine exporters seized the opportunity created by a weaker peso and short-term government incentives that eased export taxes. Between August and October 2025, outbound shipments accelerated sharply. September exports approached 1.5 million tons—almost double the level of 2024—while October 2025 cargoes rose to roughly 2.3 million tons, representing a 64% gain month-on-month and a remarkable 320% surge year-on-year. Brazil continued to dominate China’s soybean supply, maintaining exceptionally strong volumes from April through August 2025, averaging between 10 and 11 million tons monthly. Although September exports slipped by 22.8% compared to August, they still outpaced previous years, underscoring Brazil’s ability to sustain longer shipping seasons and handle large export volumes efficiently through its ports. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures climbed to a four-week high amid speculation that China could soon resume buying U.S. cargoes after signs of renewed dialogue between Washington and Beijing. Yet, near-capacity operations at key South American export terminals raise the possibility of port congestion if Chinese purchasing momentum continues through Q4 2025. The return of U.S. soybeans to Chinese markets will likely hinge on trade diplomacy outcomes and early-2026 procurement timelines. A comparative assessment of monthly export data for 2023–2025 across the United States, Argentina, and Brazil highlights a consistent erosion in U.S. market share and robust growth from South American origins. These findings align with China Customs’ September 2025 data, which confirmed no soybean arrivals from the United States and elevated import volumes from Argentina and Brazil.

 

 

21-October-2025

China imports zero soybeans from the United States in September 2025 for the first time in seven years. China imported no soybeans from the United States in September 2025, marking the first time since November 2018 that arrivals from the U.S. dropped to zero. In contrast, inflows from South America surged as Chinese buyers steered away from American cargoes amid the deepening trade rift between the world’s two largest economies. Official data showed that soybean imports from the United States in September 2025 fell from 1.7 million metric tons a year earlier to none, reflecting the impact of China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods and the exhaustion of previously harvested American stockpiles known as old-crop beans. In an ordinary trading year, some old-crop beans would still enter the market, but the current political tension has disrupted that pattern. Brazilian soybean shipments in September 2025 jumped 29.9% year-on-year to 10.96 million tons, representing 85.2% of China’s total soybean imports, while volumes from Argentina soared 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, accounting for 9% of total imports. China’s overall soybean imports reached 12.87 million metric tons in September 2025, the second-highest monthly figure ever recorded U.S. soybean cargoes have been purchased so far from the latest autumn harvest, and the window for U.S. exports is narrowing as Chinese importers lock in shipments from Brazil and Argentina through November 2025, supported in part by Argentina’s temporary tax incentive on agricultural exports. Unless there is a breakthrough in trade discussions, U.S. soybean growers could suffer heavy financial losses as Chinese processors continue relying on South American supply chains. However, analysts warn that China may face a potential supply shortage early next year, before Brazil’s next harvest enters the market. A temporary supply gap could emerge between February and April 2026 if no trade deal materializes, as Brazil has already shipped substantial volumes, leaving uncertainty about the availability of old-crop reserves. Trade dialogue between Beijing and Washington appears to be regaining some momentum following several weeks of renewed tariff threats and new export restrictions. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that he was confident a soybean agreement would eventually be achieved. During the January–September 2025 period, China imported 63.7 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, up 2.4% from the same period last year, and 2.9 million tons from Argentina, up 31.8% year-on-year. While Chinese buyers have avoided U.S. beans from the current harvest, earlier purchases made in 2025 brought total year-to-date imports of American soybeans to 16.8 million tons, an increase of 15.5% from the previous year, according to official data.

 

 

21-October-2025

China is widely perceived to be using the soybean trade as a strategic bargaining tool in its intensifying standoff with the United States. China has not made any forward purchases of new-crop U.S. soybeans as of mid-October 2025, marking the first time in twenty years that no advance bookings have been made ahead of the key U.S. export window, which typically spans from November to January. The most recent Chinese purchase of U.S. soybeans occurred in May 2025, prior to the U.S. government shutdown. Traders with direct knowledge of trade flows between the two nations confirmed that no fresh U.S. soybean deals have been concluded in recent weeks as the dispute between Beijing and Washington continues to escalate. On 15 October 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump described China’s halt on soybean purchases as an “economically hostile act” in a post on Truth Social and warned that he might impose a suspension on imports of used cooking oil from China in retaliation. Over the past five years, nearly 30% of China’s annual soybean imports have originated from the United States, underscoring the significance of this abrupt halt in trade. According to multiple sources in the grain trade, China appears to be deliberately withholding purchases of U.S. soybeans to strengthen its leverage in forthcoming trade negotiations. By intentionally avoiding the booking of fourth-quarter shipments, Beijing is maintaining pressure while talks remain unresolved, suggesting that any future buying surge would be driven by political considerations rather than by market dynamics. China is intentionally keeping its U.S. soybean commitments on hold to preserve negotiating power in discussions over tariff relief. This calculated pause highlights its use of agricultural trade as a strategic asset. Market projections indicate that China may resume limited purchases of U.S. soybeans around January 2026, with total imports expected to reach roughly 8.5 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 marketing year (September–August), compared with 22.6 million metric tons during 2024–2025.During the previous trade war, China only ceased U.S. soybean purchases entirely for two separate months. In the current standoff, imports have already been at zero for four consecutive months, with analysts anticipating that the gap could extend to six months before any recovery in buying activity. China could begin sourcing U.S. soybeans between late December 2025 and early January 2026, coinciding with the seasonal arrival of Brazilian and Argentine harvests. However, even with early South American crop arrivals, Chinese importers may need to turn to U.S. supply to cover short-term demand. A senior trader at a U.S.-based multinational grain trading enterprise noted that China might re-enter the U.S. market in late December 2025 as South American inventories tighten and fresh crops take longer to reach export channels. Chinese-based trading sources report that the nation still holds substantial uncovered soybean demand for December 2025 and January 2026, creating potential opportunities for U.S. exports. As of 14 October 2025, around 82% of the 6 million metric tons of soybean demand for November shipment had been secured, leaving approximately 1 million metric tons uncovered. Only 13% of the total 4.5 million metric tons required for December has been booked so far, while January demand remains fully open. The choice between Brazilian and Argentine soybeans depends primarily on pricing conditions. With Argentine offers currently limited, Chinese buyers have reverted largely to Brazilian cargoes. For November 2025 shipment, Argentine-origin beans are reportedly priced around 230 cents per bushel above the November Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) contract, while Brazilian-origin beans stand near 298 cents per bushel above the same benchmark. The recent sharp depreciation of the Brazilian Real against the U.S. dollar has further improved Brazil’s export competitiveness, likely keeping premiums for old-crop Brazilian soybeans high as Chinese demand persists. Brazil’s rise to dominance in the global soybean market has accelerated as a direct consequence of escalating U.S.-China trade frictions. Higher yields, favorable pricing, and Brazil’s counter-seasonal export cycle have solidified its position as China’s top supplier. “China has increasingly turned to Brazil for soybeans due to the trade dispute with the United States,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting. “Although China is seeking to diversify supply sources, few producers can match the scale of exports provided by Brazil or the United States. Brazil’s soybean shipments between January and October 2025 reached a record 102.2 million metric tons, with 79% destined for China. Between January and August 2025, China imported 73.31 million metric tons of soybeans, with Brazil accounting for 72% of that total. China’s soybean imports in September 2025 climbed 4.8% from August and 13.2% from the previous year to 12.87 million metric tons, the second-highest monthly total on record. Argentine trade officials reported that China purchased more than 6 million metric tons of soybeans in September 2025 after Argentina temporarily suspended export taxes on grain and oilseed shipments starting 22 September 2025. In comparison, China imported only 612,746 metric tons of soybeans from Argentina in September 2024.

 

 

20-October-2025

China has not yet locked in a substantial share of its soybean requirements for December 2025 and January 2026, as steep premiums for Brazilian shipments continue to deter purchasing activity. The high costs are discouraging Chinese buyers, raising the likelihood that Beijing will need to draw on state-held soybean reserves to satisfy short-term domestic demand. China is still short of roughly 8–9 million metric tons of soybeans for December–January arrivals, having already secured cargoes through November 2025 following a surge in Argentine soybean purchases in recent weeks. The intensifying USA-China trade dispute remains a key barrier preventing Chinese importers from sourcing beans from the United States. Chinese importers are avoiding U.S. soybeans due to the ongoing trade war, while Brazilian cargoes are considered excessively overpriced. Consequently, China may be forced to utilize its strategic reserves to cover demand through late 2025 and early 2026 until the next South American harvest becomes available. Brazilian soybean premiums currently range from $2.8 to $2.9 per bushel above the November 2025 Chicago Board of Trade soybean contract, compared with U.S. premiums at approximately $1.7 per bushel. Domestic soybean crush margins have remained negative throughout most of the second half of the year. China’s soybean import volumes surged to record levels from May through September, but crushing margins at major hubs such as Rizhao have been negative for months. The heavy influx of imported soybeans has worsened profitability for processors, leaving them with little appetite to book December–January shipments as Brazilian prices continue to weigh on their returns. Chinese traders are banking on a record and early soybean harvest in Brazil during early 2026 to help bring down prices. The 2025/2026 crop is projected at 177.6 million metric tons, around 6 million tons higher than the previous season. Fresh export shipments from Brazil could begin by late January 2026, easing the tight supply situation in Asia. However, Chinese crushers have not completely excluded the possibility of sourcing U.S. soybeans for December–January delivery if the two governments reach a new trade understanding. In such a scenario, American beans could become more attractive for the short delivery window, given their pricing advantage over South American offers. The future of the soybean trade could be a key agenda item at a prospective meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump accused China of “deliberately” refraining from buying U.S. soybeans, describing it as an “economically hostile act” that has “hurt American soybean farmers.”Since the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, China has diversified its soybean import structure. By 2024, the share of U.S. soybeans in China’s total imports had dropped to roughly 20%, a sharp decline from 41% recorded in 2016.

 

 

17-October-2025

Russia, the world’s leading exporter of wheat, restarted wheat shipments to Indonesia in October 2025 after a suspension that began in January 2025, following lengthy discussions between both governments over market access and certification procedures for Russian grain exports. Indonesia’s Quarantine Agency approved the extension of phytosanitary and safety certifications for Russian grain cargoes in August 2025, enabling the delivery of 52,000 metric tons of wheat during October 2025. Data from Russia’s agriculture export agency, Agroexport, indicated that total grain exports from Russia to Indonesia—dominated by wheat—amounted to 1.3 million tons in 2024. Prior to the renewed agreement, Russia had shipped only 123,000 tons of grain to Indonesia in 2025, all recorded in January 2025. Moscow has been actively working to expand its wheat trade across Asian markets in an effort to reduce reliance on its long-standing customer base in the Middle East. However, it is expected to face increasing rivalry from the United States, which is set to ramp up wheat exports to Asia following new trade partnerships in the region. Russia’s overall wheat export volumes have dropped considerably in 2025 due to an oversupplied global market and persistently low international prices. Domestic challenges—including unfavourable weather conditions, a strong rouble, and rising fuel and fertiliser costs—have further eroded profit margins for Russian wheat producers. Indonesia remains one of the world’s most significant wheat importers, ranking alongside China and Egypt. The country recently joined the BRICS Plus bloc of emerging economies, which includes China, India, and Russia, marking a step toward deeper economic alignment with major developing nations. Russia’s agriculture export agency, Agroexport, highlighted that the ongoing free trade agreement negotiations between the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and Indonesia are expected to strengthen trade relations through a gradual removal of Indonesia’s grain import tariffs. “Achieving a zero-tariff arrangement for wheat exports to Indonesia would provide substantial support to Russian exporters,” stated Russia’s agriculture export agency, Agroexport.

 

 

16-October-2025

Iron ore futures extended their downward trend on Wednesday, marking a second consecutive session of losses as escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, coupled with rising steel inventories in top consumer China, fueled uncertainty about demand prospects. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that Washington was weighing the possibility of cutting certain trade links with China. In a further escalation between the world’s two largest economies, both sides imposed new port fees on each other’s ocean shipping firms, a move that dampened investor sentiment and exerted pressure on commodity markets across the board. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), the most-active January 2025 iron ore contract settled daytime trading 1.46% lower at $108.97 per metric ton, after touching its weakest level in over a month during the previous session. The benchmark November 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange also declined, slipping 0.45% to $104.7 per ton. The steady accumulation of steel inventories further weighed on prices of the essential steelmaking material, as rising stockpiles threaten to depress finished steel prices, compress mill margins, and dampen demand for additional raw materials. Recent industry data indicated that steel inventories have continued to climb, reinforcing bearish sentiment surrounding iron ore consumption. Despite these pressures, near-term demand for iron ore remains relatively robust, providing a degree of stability to prices amid broader economic uncertainty. Other steelmaking components recorded modest gains, with coking coal rising 1.01% and coke up 0.34%. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel product performance diverged—rebar fell 0.85%, stainless steel declined 0.24%, and hot-rolled coil dropped 0.86%, while wire rod managed to climb 0.45%.

 

 

15-October-2025

China’s abrupt halt to US soybean imports amid intensifying trade tensions has thrown seasonal shipping dynamics into disarray, with not a single cargo arriving so far this season. In a typical year, about 12 million tonnes of soybeans are shipped from the US to China between October and November, generating nearly 120 billion tonne-miles — around 12% of total panamax bulk carrier tonne-mile demand. The disappearance of this trade flow could effectively erase roughly 185 panamax bulk carrier voyages, putting significant strain on dry bulk freight sentiment. China’s decision to suspend US soybean purchases comes as a direct countermeasure to Washington’s recent tariff hikes on Chinese goods. As a result, no US-origin soybean shipment has reached Chinese ports this season, whereas normally about 13 million tonnes of cargo would have been unloaded between September and November. Soybean shipments usually rise sharply in September and peak during October and November; however, by late September 2025, more than 1 million tonnes of soybean trade had already been lost, and close to 12 million tonnes remain at risk in the coming two months. Nearly all soybean cargoes — more than 95% — are transported aboard panamax bulk carriers, which under regular circumstances would amount to about 185 voyages during October and November, producing around 120 billion tonne-miles of trade. This trade lane alone accounts for almost 12% of total panamax tonne-mile demand, which typically averages about 1,037 billion tonne-miles for the two-month period. If October and November see the same pattern of cancellations as September, panamax freight rates could experience additional downward pressure. China generally purchases between 25 million tonnes and 30 million tonnes of soybeans from the US each year. While the US could try to redirect shipments to alternate destinations such as Europe, Mexico, or Southeast Asia, the loss of steady Chinese demand would be difficult to offset. On the other hand, China faces challenges securing sufficient supply elsewhere, as producers like Brazil and Argentina already operate near capacity during their harvest cycles. Although a trade resumption between the two nations remains likely, even a short-term impasse could negatively affect panamax ship employment during the key export window. The weakness is already visible in the forward freight market. Market sentiment among mid-size bulk carrier owners has deteriorated, with the Panamax P5TC Baltic Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) for October 2025 (as of 6 October 2025) showing a 9% decline from the average rate in September. The forward curve indicates further downside, with November and December contracts trading 12% and 15% lower, respectively. The suspension of US soybean shipments to China endangers one of the most vital seasonal trades that usually employs around 180 to 190 panamax bulk carriers from October through November, contributing approximately 120 billion tonne-miles. This disruption has driven forward freight rates for Q4 2025 below September averages, signaling mounting anxiety among market participants over reduced tonnage demand and potential idling of ships during what is normally a peak season for the segment.

 

 

9-September-2025

China’s soybean purchases climbed to an unprecedented level for the month of August, as importers aggressively secured cargoes from South America amid protracted trade frictions with the United States. Data released by the General Administration of Customs revealed that the nation imported 12.28 million metric tons of soybeans in August 2025, edging up 1.2% from the 12.14 million metric tons recorded in August 2024. The inflows exceeded earlier projections of 11 million metric tons, driven by crushers stepping up procurement while negotiations between Beijing and Washington showed little progress. From January through August 2025, China’s total soybean arrivals reached 73.31 million metric tons, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 4%. Compared to July 2025, imports in August advanced by 5.2%. Market participants note that Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter, was likely the dominant source of last month’s shipments. Projections suggest that Brazil’s overall exports in September 2025 could total 6.75 million metric tons, well above the 5.16 million metric tons shipped in September 2024. Nevertheless, with September underway, China’s soybean inflows are entering their typical seasonal downturn. The absence of concrete progress in China-U.S. trade discussions is fuelling apprehension that supply shortfalls may emerge later in the year, offering price support in global markets. Notably, China has yet to finalize any purchases of U.S. soybeans for the American harvest period spanning September through January, putting U.S. exporters at risk of losing billions of dollars in potential sales. To fill the gap left by the lack of U.S. supply, Chinese importers are scaling up acquisitions from Argentina and Uruguay. Traders have suggested that processors may procure up to 10 million metric tons from these two South American producers over the 2025/2026 marketing cycle, which concludes in August 2026.

 

 

23-August-2025

Chicago soybean futures slipped on Thursday, weighed down by strong yield potential revealed during a closely followed U.S. Midwest crop tour. Corn futures inched higher as firm export demand countered pressure from similarly favorable crop conditions in the U.S., while wheat rebounded after hitting contract lows. Traders awaited the release of weekly U.S. export sales data later in the day, with markets also focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Results from the third day of the Pro Farmer crop tour showed Illinois reporting its highest soybean pod counts in more than two decades and its second-strongest corn yield outlook. Western Iowa displayed above-average yield potential, though concerns about crop diseases remain. The annual tour, which concluded Thursday, is closely tracked by grain markets and has drawn heightened attention this year after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected a much larger-than-anticipated 2025 corn crop. Seasonal bearish trends continue to pressure grain prices, but Powell’s remarks are expected to influence sentiment toward the dollar and risk appetite. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled lower at $10.35-1/4 per bushel. CBOT corn futures rose to $4.05-1/2 per bushel, buoyed by strong export interest and a recovery from last week’s lows. CBOT wheat gained to $5.33-1/2 per bushel, bouncing off contract lows set on Wednesday, with gains attributed to short-covering and a revival in international demand. Despite this support, wheat markets remain pressured by expectations of abundant global supply, particularly higher estimates of Russia’s harvest, though sluggish Russian exports and fresh demand from Egypt and other buyers have lent stability.

 

 

22-August-2025

Ethanol market participants in Eastern and Central Europe expressed concerns that the upcoming corn crop may be tainted with aflatoxin, threatening the regional ethanol supply. In Bulgaria, crop conditions are slightly better than in 2024 due to improved rainfall, but elsewhere the dry weather has created ideal conditions for aflatoxin development. Producers in several countries reported difficulties sourcing clean feedstocks because of lingering contamination from the 2024 harvest. Some ethanol producers in Eastern and Central Europe were unable to meet their summer term contract obligations and resorted to sourcing volumes from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region despite high costs and logistical hurdles. To protect themselves from the risk of aflatoxin losses, many farmers planted fewer corn crops. Farmers have increasingly lost confidence in corn after poor results over the past two years, leading to reduced planting in 2025. This, combined with unfavorable weather, is expected to worsen supply conditions. Ethanol plants that were supposed to restart in July 2025 after maintenance have postponed operations, awaiting the September 2025 harvest to assess crop quality. The aflatoxin problem dominated the 2024 harvest season, and many market participants worry it could reappear this year. Corn traders remain skeptical about quality, with the US Department of Agriculture cutting its EU corn production forecast for marketing year 2025-26 by 3% due to heat damage and crop failures. In Romania, the initial 11 million mt production projection for MY 2025-26 has been reduced as hot weather has caused significant crop losses. Serbia is facing similar conditions, with traders predicting yields of only 4-4.5 mt/hectare, leaving little to no surplus for export. A Serbian trader remarked that certainty will only come once the first corn lots enter silos, while another from Bulgaria warned that 2025’s crop could mirror 2024’s with low yields and toxin concerns. Ongoing crop failures are also pushing Balkan farmers to scale back corn cultivation in favor of alternative crops. The EU’s limit for aflatoxin in corn for feed use is 20 parts per billion (ppb), and corn exceeding this threshold is rejected by feed producers, forcing farmers either to discard the crop or divert it to other uses. In Serbia, contaminated corn from the 2024 harvest was sold to biofuel plants in Hungary. The uncertain quality of the 2025 harvest is restricting forward sales, with traders reluctant to commit. Nevertheless, new crop prices have risen, with FOB CVB offers climbing 5% between early June and late July. Some ethanol producers have managed to generate waste-based ethanol from aflatoxin-contaminated corn, benefiting from double-counting incentives. Flows of advanced ethanol made from this feedstock have been reported from Hungary to the Netherlands and more recently to the UK. The UK Department for Transport confirmed that ethanol made from aflatoxin-contaminated corn qualifies for double-counting incentives under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), which since November 15, 2024, has classified contaminated corn as a double-counting agricultural residue. This allows producers to claim double the number of certificates for each litre of ethanol produced. Traders suggest this policy opens the door for wider participation from European producers. Meanwhile, European corn crush margins for T2 ethanol production turned negative for the first time in 2025 during June but later recovered as T2 ethanol prices strengthened, with values rising to Eur611.75/cu m FOB Rotterdam on August 19, rebounding sharply from the June 13 low of Eur560/cu m.

 

 

21-August-2025

Syria is set to issue an international tender to import 200K metric tons of wheat to address a domestic supply deficit. The nation is grappling with its worst drought in 36 years, which has reduced wheat production by about 40%, while the financially strained government struggles to secure large-scale imports. To safeguard food security, the Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade is pursuing wheat purchases from major exporters such as Ukraine and Romania. The General Establishment for Grain has acquired 372K metric tons from local farmers so far this season but requires 2.55 million tons to meet annual consumption needs. Wheat is Syria’s most critical crop, forming the backbone of the state-subsidised bread programme. Recent wheat imports have been settled on a cash-against-delivery basis, with no pending debts to suppliers. Apart from an Iraqi in-kind grant of 146K metric tons and a pledge made in April 2025 to supply 220K metric tons as a gift, Syria has not secured any external budgetary support. All wheat imports are being financed through sovereign self-funding rather than foreign aid or concessional loans. Any shortfall will pose a serious challenge for newly elected Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose administration is focused on rebuilding the country after a 14-year civil war and the ousting of former president Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Before the outbreak of conflict, Syria produced up to 4 million tons of wheat annually and exported around 1 million tons.

 

 

29-July-2025

The amendments to the International Code for the Safe Carriage of Grain in Bulk introduce a fourth official loading pattern in addition to the existing three patterns currently specified in the Grain Code, which are full hold trimmed ends, full hold untrimmed ends, and partly filled hold where the grain surface is assumed to be trimmed evenly regardless of the filling level, requiring manual redistribution of grain under the deck ends to reduce voids, a process often skipped due to its labor intensity, resulting in larger actual voids and higher grain shifting moments than calculated; the newly introduced pattern, partly filled hold in way of the hatch opening, ends untrimmed, allows for untrimmed grain in the end spaces if the final grain level is within the hatch coaming perimeter, assuming a natural 30-degree slope from the hatch end beam or feeding holes depending on the filling height, and requires a new set of calculations for grain shift moments and volume curves from the bottom of the end girder to the top of the hatch coaming; this update will become mandatory on 1 January 2026 for newbuildings with keels laid on or after that date, while existing ships can adopt the amendments voluntarily to increase loading flexibility and demonstrate compliance, especially in large grain exporting ports where authorities are expected to scrutinize loading patterns more closely; whether existing ships should implement the update depends on factors such as cargo capacity, draught limitations, and grain density—ships that typically load all holds fully and remain within draught limits may not require modifications, though trimming can still be done in partially filled holds below the coaming if port services permit; for ships already in operation, an addendum to the grain loading manual may be prepared and submitted to DNV for approval, containing revised grain shift moments and volume curves in both graphical and tabular formats, along with the applicable loading conditions and supporting input data, or a complete revised manual may be submitted if the original yard or designer is tasked with the updates; the ship’s onboard loading computer must also be updated and re-approved to reflect the new load pattern and associated curves; it is recommended that shipyards and designers incorporate the amended requirements into grain loading manuals and loading computers for newbuildings with keels laid after 1 January 2026, and that owners of ships constructed before this date but not yet delivered coordinate with yards to implement the changes, while owners of operational ships should consider submitting a DNV-approved addendum if the amendment is deemed applicable.

 

 

25-June-2025

Chicago soybean, corn, and wheat futures declined on Tuesday as easing geopolitical tensions following a proposed ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced war-related concerns, while favorable weather conditions continued to support U.S. crop prospects, with oil prices also falling sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between the two nations, although he later accused both sides of breaching the accord, and despite his claim that Israel had called off further strikes, Iranian and Israeli media reported fresh Israeli airstrikes on Iran, while the most active soybean contract dropped 0.6% to $10.40-1/2 per bushel and soyoil, widely used in biofuel and closely linked to crude oil, declined 2.1%, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn easing 0.3% to $4.18 a bushel after hitting a new 2025 low of $4.16-1/4 earlier in the session, and CBOT wheat falling 1.5% to $5.60-3/4 a bushel, as grain markets remained weighed down by expectations of ample U.S. and global supply despite slightly disappointing U.S. crop condition data, with soybean ratings unchanged at 66% good to excellent—below analyst forecasts—while corn ratings slipped by 2 points to 70%, still the highest for this time of year in five years, and although ratings for both winter and spring wheat unexpectedly declined, the progressing U.S. winter wheat harvest shifted focus to incoming supply, with upcoming hot and rainy weather expected to benefit U.S. corn belt crops with minimal heat stress, while rain in the northern U.S. Plains has improved spring wheat soil conditions and dry weather in the central and southern Plains has supported winter wheat harvesting, according to weather forecaster Vaisala, and global wheat production prospects remain favorable across the Northern Hemisphere as harvests advance, with Russia’s 2025–2026 wheat output now projected at 84.8 million tons and Egypt’s state grains buyer having recently secured several hundred thousand metric tons of Black Sea wheat for July and August 2025 deliveries, though a more consistent rise in importer demand would be necessary to alter the bearish sentiment dominating the wheat market.

 

 

24-June-2025

Wheat production in the European Union is projected to recover in the marketing year 2025-2026, although the rebound is expected to be uneven due to persistent dryness in critical growing regions. Weather variability across the EU has led to differing outlooks, with continued dryness in northern and Central Europe—particularly in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—undermining yield expectations despite an expansion in planted area, while 70% of French soft wheat is currently rated in good to excellent condition. Conversely, southern and eastern EU countries such as Spain, Romania, and Bulgaria have benefited from improved rainfall, supporting favorable growing conditions and stronger harvest prospects. Total EU wheat output is forecast at 135.6 million metric tons in 2025-2026, rising from 120 million metric tons the previous year, while the United States Department of Agriculture estimates production at 136.6 million metric tons, compared to 122 million metric tons in 2024-2025. Expectations for export growth are increasing, with commodity brokers predicting wheat exports will reach 33.5 million metric tons, up from 26.3 million metric tons, and USDA forecasting 34.5 million metric tons, a 30.2% year-on-year increase. Eastern European traders anticipate greater grain export opportunities within the EU following the end of the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement, which resulted in the reimposition of tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural goods from 6 June 2025, ending a tariff-free period that began in June 2022. The European Commission reported that Ukraine accounted for 62% of EU wheat imports and 57% of corn imports during the 2024-2025 marketing year. Demand for EU wheat is expected to remain steady in its primary export destination—the Middle East and North Africa—through 2025-2026, with Morocco forecast to continue high import levels due to another disappointing harvest, and wheat demand across the wider Middle East projected to remain firm. The reintroduction of quotas on Ukrainian wheat imports, now capped at 1 million metric tons compared to 4.5 million metric tons previously, could shift trade dynamics and create opportunities for MENA buyers to secure competitively priced EU wheat.

 

 

23-June-2025

China’s soybean imports from Brazil surged by 37.5% in May 2025 compared to May 2024, as Chinese buyers took advantage of Brazil’s bumper crop, while imports from the United States also rose by 28.3%; specifically, China imported 12.11 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil in May 2025, up from 8.81 million tons a year earlier, and 1.63 million tons from the U.S., up from 1.27 million tons, with U.S. soybeans accounting for 11.7% of China’s total soybean imports that month; overall, China’s May 2025 soybean imports hit a record 13.92 million tons—more than double April’s volume—driven by normalized customs clearance and higher crushing plant operating rates, with some delayed cargoes from previous months also arriving in May; from January to May 2025, Brazil shipped 21.25 million tons and the U.S. 14.57 million tons of soybeans to China, with China accelerating U.S. purchases ahead of potential trade tensions and concentrated arrivals boosting cumulative imports, while earlier harvest delays in Brazil deferred its shipments; soybean imports are expected to stay strong in Q3 2025, but Q4 volumes will hinge on the progress of U.S.-China trade talks, and during January-May 2025, China also imported 111,603 tons of soybeans from Argentina.

 

 

19-June-2025

Ukrainian traders are seeking to boost grain exports to the Middle East after their tariff-free access to the European Union market expired, according to the CEO of a company supplying grains to Jordan. The EU had suspended duties and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products following Russia’s invasion three years ago but reinstated pre-war trade quotas last Friday while negotiations for a new trade agreement continue. This shift was anticipated, and trade patterns have already begun to adjust. In the past month, two Ukrainian companies applied to participate in Jordanian grain tenders, with one failing and the other successfully delivering milling wheat. If Ukraine can no longer profitably export grains to Europe, it will turn to other destinations, intensifying competition with European traders. Despite the change in EU rules—driven by pressure from European farmers affected by surging Ukrainian agricultural exports—Ukraine is expected to remain a major global grain supplier, although it may face difficulties competing with Europe on price or quality. Romanian ports will continue to serve as the main conduit for Ukrainian wheat. Increased competition from Ukraine is welcomed, as it tends to drive prices down. As the world’s seventh-largest wheat exporter, Ukraine has already shipped over 4 million tons of wheat to the EU since the 2024/2025 season began in July 2024. The reinstated pre-war quota allows for just 1 million tons of Ukrainian wheat per year to enter the EU duty-free, which, adjusted for the remaining seven months of 2025, equates to about 583,000 tons—far below the current export pace and highlighting Ukraine’s urgent need to diversify its export markets. Agricultural products represented roughly 60% of Ukraine’s total exports valued at $41.6 billion in 2024, with about 60% of those agricultural exports going to the European Union.

 

 

18-June-2025

Using our dry bulk flow tool, we have observed shifting patterns in global corn trade, where the U.S. and Brazil dominate exports similar to soybeans, but unlike soybeans, U.S. corn exports are gaining strength; this report examines whether that rise can offset the weaker soybean outlook, noting that U.S. corn exports, which are the country’s largest dry bulk export by tonnage, showed strong performance in Q1 2025 and are projected to exceed 2022–2024 levels, driving demand for panamax, handysize, and supramax bulk carriers with corn accounting for 30%, 26%, and 22% of their respective demand shares; in terms of tonnage, corn has overtaken soybeans in recent years, growing from 40% of U.S. agricultural exports in 2023 to 59% in 2025, supported by domestic policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standards that maintain ethanol demand, which consumes nearly 40% of U.S. corn and encourages increased corn planting; demand drivers vary across regions, with Japan—currently the top importer—mainly using corn for animal feed and facing possible long-term declines due to demographic and dietary shifts, while Mexico, the second-largest importer, shows more promising growth tied to rising meat demand and heavy corn consumption in its diet, particularly white corn used for food; meanwhile, Vietnam emerges as a potential growth market as it expands industrial-scale animal feed production, and although currently only importing a small portion of its corn from the U.S., expected higher yields and lower prices could make American corn more attractive; overall, strong U.S. corn exports are supporting bulk carrier demand and providing resilience against softer soybean trade caused by trade tensions, with Japan likely to sustain short-term demand, Mexico offering medium-term growth, and Vietnam presenting a longer-term opportunity.

 

 

11-June-2025

China’s soybean imports surged to an all-time high of 13.92 million metric tons in May 2025, more than doubling April 2025’s volume. In April 2025, China had imported just 6.08 million metric tons of soybeans, marking a decade-low due to extended customs clearance times and delayed Brazilian shipments caused by harvest setbacks and logistical disruptions. Crushing plant utilization rates have now climbed above 50%, and soybean meal deliveries have remained robust, with May 2025’s import level exceeding market expectations of 12 million to 12.5 million metric tons. Compared to May 2024, when imports totaled 10.22 million metric tons, May 2025 saw a 36.2% increase. From January to May 2025, China’s cumulative soybean imports reached 37.11 million metric tons. Most of China’s soybean purchases are sourced from Brazil, the world’s largest producer, which typically exports the bulk of its crop between March and June. Brazil shipped out 14.10 million metric tons of soybeans in May 2025 and is forecast to export 12.55 million metric tons in June 2025. In Argentina, the world’s third-largest soybean supplier, yields have been outperforming expectations despite harvest delays caused by persistent rainfall affecting several crops.

 

 

10-June-2025

The U.S. Department of Agriculture holds ambitious expectations for U.S. corn exports in both the current and upcoming marketing years, but Brazil’s strong ongoing harvest may cap the overall potential. As of 30 May 2025, U.S. corn exporters had already committed 99% of the USDA’s full-year 2024-2025 export forecast, which ends on 31 August 2025—marking the highest coverage at this point in the season in a decade and suggesting the current target may be too conservative. U.S. corn has remained price-competitive against Brazilian supplies in recent weeks, and export sales for 2024-2025 have consistently outperformed seasonal averages. However, Brazil has begun harvesting its highly export-focused second corn crop, with production forecasts rising significantly in recent days. Since Brazil’s surge in second-corn production and exports during 2011-2012, U.S. corn exporters have faced challenges closing sales in the final quarter of the marketing year whenever Brazil’s crop is strong. For 2024-2025, Brazil’s second-corn harvest is projected to be 11% higher year-on-year, and similar historical patterns suggest the U.S. could still secure an additional few million metric tons in corn sales over the next three months. The USDA currently estimates 2024-2025 U.S. corn exports at 66 million metric tons. However, comparisons with last year should be made cautiously, as corn was both more abundant and cheaper then, and Brazil’s second crop was down 12%, which opened the door for above-average late-season U.S. exports in 2023-2024. Some market participants believe that concerns over tariffs led buyers to front-load purchases, which, although unconfirmed, could present a short-term headwind to further U.S. sales. Looking ahead, the USDA’s export projection for 2025-2026 surpasses that of 2024-2025, but its viability remains uncertain as Brazil’s large 2024-2025 crop will likely dominate international demand in the coming months. As of 30 May 2025, U.S. corn exporters had booked just over 3 million metric tons for 2025-2026 shipments—slightly ahead of the past two years, though not particularly impressive. As with old-crop trade, new-crop U.S. corn sales tend to be subdued ahead of the marketing year when Brazil’s second-corn output is strong, a trend that often applies to other global corn exporters as well. Combined corn production for 2024-2025 in Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine is expected to rise by 2% year-on-year, potentially suppressing U.S. export volumes during the early months of the 2025-2026 period. Beyond Brazil’s influence, U.S. corn export prospects in 2025-2026 will also depend heavily on domestic conditions. While not without challenges, the 2025-2026 U.S. corn crop has made a solid start, supported by favorable weather forecasts through mid-June. Historically, U.S. corn exports rarely fall short of initial projections when production meets or exceeds early expectations.

 

 

28-May-2025

Australian wheat inventories in 2025 are expected to significantly exceed 2024 levels by the end of the season, placing downward pressure on prices due to weaker demand from China and strong competition from substantial Russian wheat exports; a potential fire sale of stored grain may be required to create space ahead of the Q4 2025 wheat harvest, which could further depress Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures already trading near their lowest levels since 2020 amid an oversupplied global grain market; between October 2024 and March 2025, Australia shipped only 546,000 metric tons of wheat to China, compared to 2.9 million metric tons over the same period in the 2023/2024 marketing season, while Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has maintained high export volumes during Q2 2025 despite it typically being a quieter period before harvest; the upcoming Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest, including Russia’s, is set to accelerate in the coming weeks, introducing more low-priced grain into the market and diminishing Australia’s export opportunities; if the current export pace continues, carryover from the 2024 crop could reach between 5 million and 6 million tons, and with additional stock from previous seasons, total carryover could climb as high as 8 million tons, creating a significant oversupply that may lead to aggressive selling and drive prices down toward $194 per ton; if new season crops perform well, storage constraints could force producers to sell into the export market at lower prices to free up capacity; Australia’s end-of-season wheat stocks have averaged 3.3 million tons over the past five years; analysts project 2025 wheat production in Australia to be between 28 million and 34 million tons, slightly below the 34.1 million tons harvested in 2024 but still well above the ten-year average of 27.6 million tons; while Chinese buyers booked four to five 55,000-ton shipments of Australian wheat in early May 2025, these represent the only new purchases recorded in Q1 2025 and have not been followed by further orders; meanwhile, Russia continues to export competitively priced grain even during its off-season, limiting Australia’s ability to expand its presence in markets such as the Middle East and Africa where increased demand for Australian wheat had been anticipated.

 

 

21-May-2025

China’s soybean imports have recently declined to a 12-year low, and trade projections indicate that the overall pace may remain subdued through mid-2025, even as top supplier Brazil has harvested a record crop and logged record-high export volumes to China; notable discrepancies have emerged between Chinese customs import data and export data from suppliers, prompting the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to discontinue its reliance on China’s customs figures for estimating soybean imports in 2024, and interestingly, Chinese buyers may have absorbed a few additional U.S. soybean cargoes earlier in the U.S. shipping season; Chinese customs reported March-April 2025 soybean imports at just 9.6 million metric tons, down 32% year-on-year and the lowest for that timeframe since 2013, holding total imports through the first seven months of the 2024–25 marketing year at a six-year low, a slowdown partly attributed to prolonged customs clearance times and delayed shipments from Brazil due to harvest and logistical challenges, despite Brazil’s record output; Brazil’s exports to China between February and April 2025 still reached a new high, up 13% compared to the previous year’s record, though from September 2024 through January 2025, both U.S. and Brazilian shipments to China were significantly lower—U.S. exports were at a 12-year low excluding trade war periods, and Brazilian exports fell nearly 40%—potentially explaining the constrained domestic soymeal supply and sluggish import figures; analysts suggest Chinese buyers may have underestimated Brazil’s shipping delays and relied too heavily on expected volumes, missing opportunities to fill gaps with U.S. beans; with inconsistencies in reported trade data, market participants are closely watching upcoming Chinese customs releases to confirm if recent record Brazilian shipments are accurately reflected; May and June 2025 soybean imports into China are forecast to reach around 11 million tons each, up 3% versus 2024 and potentially setting a new record for the period, though total imports would still lag at six-year lows with only three months left in the marketing year, a surprising scenario given that China absorbs over 70% of Brazil’s soybean exports, which are expected to hit historic highs this year; elevated Brazilian volumes could exceed current forecasts if exports continue strong through mid-year due to the delayed start and potential shipping bottlenecks in May; China this week raised its 2024–25 soybean import projection to 98.6 million tons, a figure that would imply a 9% year-on-year decline in July–September imports if May and June estimates are met, a forecast that appears inconsistent with Brazil’s high export momentum; the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) currently estimates China’s 2024–25 soybean imports at 108 million tons and has consistently projected higher volumes than China’s official figures, citing exporter data that suggests underreporting; this upward revision by China may still be conservative, considering that past seasons saw final import figures increase further from similar points in the year, including a 9% rise in the 2023–24 estimate; Brazil’s late shipping schedule may extend elevated export volumes into September or October, overlapping with the start of the U.S. marketing season, which has historically reduced U.S. export opportunities and could benefit China’s strategy to lessen its dependence on U.S. soybeans.

 

 

15-May-2025

Brazil is steadily reinforcing its position as China’s top soybean supplier, a dominance supported by record harvest levels, competitive pricing, and the continued absence of tariffs that still affect soybean exports from the United States, with recent developments including China lifting suspensions on five Brazilian soybean exporters and expanding its infrastructure investments in South America, such as upgrades to Brazil’s Santos Port and the development of a deep-water port in Peru, aimed at enhancing the efficiency of agricultural imports. Although a 90-day tariff truce between the United States and China has been enacted and China has reduced soybean import tariffs from 145% to 10% effective 14 May 2025, American soybean exports are still facing challenges, as many U.S. farmers remain unconvinced that these changes will lead to significantly increased Chinese purchases unless supply from South America is disrupted, with analysts already forecasting a 20% drop in U.S. soybean exports. This strategic realignment by China was further underlined during a recent summit in China, where President Xi Jinping announced a $9 billion investment credit line and additional incentives to deepen regional cooperation, while Brazil reaffirmed the strength of its relationship with China and emphasized the gains it has made from the ongoing U.S.-China trade rift, particularly in the soybean trade. Shipment data for Q1 2025 confirms these dynamics, with U.S. soybean exports to China rising sharply in a familiar seasonal pattern, starting from about 1 million tonnes in January 2025 and climbing through February 2025 and March 2025 to exceed 11 million tonnes in April 2025, while May 2025 is maintaining strong levels, with preliminary figures for the first half of the month already reaching half of April 2025’s total, indicating continued high demand. Brazilian soybean shipments to China have also been consistently strong in early 2025, outpacing previous records, and although this surge in trade activity has not yet translated into higher Baltic freight rates on the Santos (Brazil)–Qingdao (China) route, the relatively smooth operations at Santos Port—marked by low congestion—are likely keeping rates stable despite increased cargo flow. However, if export volumes remain elevated through the summer months and unforeseen disruptions such as adverse weather or logistical delays emerge, market conditions may shift, potentially leading to longer bulk carrier queues and renewed upward pressure on freight rates, with the coming weeks set to be a decisive period for observing how dry bulk shipping trends respond to these evolving supply chain dynamics.

 

 

13-May-2025

China has projected a decline in soybean imports in 2026, attributing the expected drop to measures aimed at reducing soymeal usage in the livestock sector, as outlined in its first forecast for the 2025–2026 crop year released on Monday. The reduction in soymeal content in animal feed is anticipated to lower consumption in the livestock industry and result in decreased import volumes for 2026. Imports are forecast to fall to 95.8 million tons in 2026, down 2.8% from the 98.6 million tons projected for 2025. Although soybean imports in 2025 are being supported by a strong harvest of new soybeans from South America, the volume remains below the levels seen in 2024.

 

 

12-May-2025

China’s soybean imports dropped to their lowest level in a decade in April 2025, falling to 6.08 million metric tons—down 29.1% year-on-year—due to persistent customs clearance delays and the late arrival of Brazilian shipments caused by harvest disruptions and logistical challenges, with cargoes now taking 20–25 days to move from ports to crushing plants instead of the usual 7–10 days, leading several crushing facilities in northern and northeastern China to cut output or suspend operations by early May 2025 amid mounting backlogs, while some feed mills exhausted their inventories and were forced to turn to expensive spot cargoes; despite no official confirmation of these delays, they come amid continued U.S.-China trade tensions, with the United States remaining China’s second-largest soybean supplier; although soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) briefly surged in late April 2025, they have since declined on expectations of incoming Brazilian cargoes, while market participants remain alert to potential port congestion if disruptions persist; soybean arrivals from January to April 2025 totaled 23.19 million tons, marking a 14.6% decline from the 27.15 million tons imported during the same period in 2024; imports are projected to rebound in May and June 2025, with some Chinese traders and analysts forecasting monthly volumes near 11 million tons, though Brazil’s grain exporters association has cautioned that total soybean exports may fall to 12.6 million tons in May 2025, possibly restricting supply to China; meanwhile, U.S. soybean exports to China continue to weaken, with USDA data showing net sales for the 2024–2025 marketing year at zero as of the week ending 1 May 2025, and attention is now focused on the upcoming U.S.-China meeting in Switzerland, where U.S. President Donald Trump aims to make progress on trade discussions and explore the potential easing of tariffs on Chinese goods.

 

 

6-May-2025

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures declined on Monday as traders awaited potential updates on U.S.-China trade negotiations and faced growing competition from Brazil, while wheat and corn prices also moved lower amid expectations of favorable U.S. crop condition and planting progress reports due later in the day; the most-active CBOT soybean contract fell 0.7% to $10.50-1/4 per bushel, CBOT wheat dropped 0.5% to $5.40-1/4 per bushel, and corn was down 0.6% to $4.66 per bushel. China is currently reviewing a proposal from Washington to engage in talks over U.S. tariffs, leaving markets cautious as they await confirmation of any actual negotiations, especially with uncertainty still lingering over the future of trade relations. Soybeans came under additional pressure from weaker soy oil prices, which tracked losses in crude oil, and from proposed federal budget cuts by U.S. President Donald Trump targeting renewable energy programs, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), potentially reducing future demand for biofuels made with vegetable oils. Corn traded lower as favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest boosted optimism for planting, increasing the likelihood of a positive planting progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), while wheat prices fell on limited weather-related threats to both U.S. and Black Sea crops, with some estimates for Black Sea wheat output being raised due to the absence of significant frost damage during winter and traders also reacting to bearish news of rising Russian wheat exports, which could intensify competition for U.S. wheat in the global market.

 

 

6-May-2025

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures hit contract lows last week, highlighting speculators’ persistent bearish sentiment toward the grain, which earlier this year stood in stark contrast to their highly bullish position in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn—though optimism in corn has eased considerably amid global trade uncertainty. That divergence has reappeared in a different form, as traders, during the week ending 29 April 2025, increased their net short position in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures and options to a two-year high of 121,415 contracts, up from about 90,000 the prior week, marking the largest weekly wheat selloff since 2017, primarily driven by new short positions. Over the same period, funds also staged a sizable selloff in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures and options, reducing their net long to 71,329 contracts from 112,805 a week earlier, well below the peak of 364,217 contracts in early February, although they have maintained a generally bullish stance for the past six months. Historically, since 2006, a deeply bearish view on wheat has always been accompanied by at least some degree of bearishness in corn, and when corn sentiment is moderately bullish, wheat pessimism has never been as extreme as it is now—suggesting that funds may currently be either overly negative on wheat or overly positive on corn. Last week, the most-active Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July wheat contract traded at an average premium of $0.58 per bushel over July corn, far below the decade average of around $1.30, though both contracts briefly reached parity in 2021 and 2023. The bearish sentiment toward wheat also extended to Kansas City contracts, as traders in the same week established a record net short of 67,269 contracts in Kansas City wheat futures and options, continuing a trend of negativity that began in August 2023. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat also gained a slight premium over Kansas City wheat for the first time in five months, reversing the typical pattern where Kansas City wheat trades higher, as timely rains for the U.S. hard red winter crop have weighed on Kansas City prices, and the overall wheat complex is under pressure due to improved global supply expectations. As of 29 April 2025, traders also held near-record bearish positions in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean meal futures and options, while extending their moderately bullish stance on soybean oil for a fifth consecutive week and increasing their net long in soybean futures and options to 38,202 contracts. Looking ahead, traders are expected to monitor political and trade developments while preparing for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly report on May 12, which will provide the first projections for the 2025–2026 marketing year along with updates to 2024–2025 estimates, where analysts will be watching closely for any potential increase in U.S. corn export forecasts.

 

 

6-May-2025

Ukraine’s grain crops are relatively modest on the global scale—U.S. state Iowa alone produces more than twice as much corn annually—but the country has become a key global grain supplier by exporting the majority of what it grows, with corn production tripling during the 2010s contributing significantly to this success; however, production has declined sharply since the record 2021–2022 harvest that preceded Russia’s 2022 invasion, and early forecasts for 2025–2026 indicate this downward trend may continue, potentially reducing Ukraine’s share in global grain exports and benefiting competitors like the United States. A weak wheat harvest in Ukraine and only average expectations for Russia could add pressure to global wheat supplies into 2026, although oilseeds continue to offer a bright spot for Ukrainian agriculture. Grain farming has been largely unprofitable in Ukraine since 2022 due to war-related logistical disruptions and broader economic challenges, with major grain output—corn, barley, and wheat—in 2024–2025 falling 34% from the 2021–2022 benchmark, making it one of the smallest harvests in over a decade. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently estimated Ukraine’s 2025–2026 harvested wheat area at a 22-year low due to dry planting conditions, which could reduce wheat production by 23% year-over-year, though other projections suggest only a 1% decline from 2024, still placing output near decade lows. Improved profitability is expected to support larger corn plantings, but even with gains, a potential harvest around 29 million metric tons remains well below the record 42 million. To recover lost ground in global markets, Ukraine’s grain production will need to meet or exceed expectations in 2025–2026, as USDA forecasts show Ukraine’s share of global corn exports at 11.7% in 2024–2025—a 14-year low and a steep drop from 15.2% in 2024—while wheat exports are expected to account for just 7.7%, the second time in a decade falling below 8%. Although production has declined, Ukraine has managed to export a larger share of its harvest than usual due to reduced domestic feed demand amid struggles in the livestock sector, with more than 80% of corn and around 75% of wheat being exported in recent years, compared to just 16% and 45% respectively for the United States. Oilseeds such as sunflower, soybeans, and rapeseed have proven more profitable than grains since 2022, with their combined harvested area reaching record levels in both 2023–2024 and 2024–2025, increasing over 30% in the past decade supported by strong domestic processing and solid international demand; rapeseed area may decline in 2025–2026 due to harsh planting conditions, and outlooks for soybeans and sunflower are mixed, but total oilseed area is expected to remain strong. Before 2022, grain crops significantly outpaced oilseeds in acreage, but by 2025–2026, the two may be nearly equal, reflecting farmers’ growing preference for oilseeds, especially as Ukraine primarily exports value-added oilseed products like oils and meals rather than raw seeds, which is advantageous amid a tight global vegetable oil market. Ukraine has maintained high levels of oilseed and oilseed product exports since the war began, and if upcoming harvests are successful, the country may avoid further losses in its export market share.

 

 

6-May-2025

China has stated its intention to reduce dependence on foreign soybeans by limiting imports and enhancing national food security, claiming significant reductions in the use of soybean meal in livestock feed; however, soybean imports reached record levels in 2024, casting doubt on the extent of these feed reformulation efforts. Despite aiming to cut soybean meal’s share in animal feed to 10% by 2030—down from 13% in 2023 and 18% in 2017—China continues to import more than 100 million metric tons of soybeans annually, nearly all of which are processed into protein-rich feed primarily for its vast hog herd, the largest in the world. This situation is particularly concerning for Brazil, whose soybean industry has grown in response to strong Chinese demand, while U.S. producers may be less surprised given China’s recent pattern of rejecting American supplies. Although China’s soybean import growth has slowed compared to projections from a decade ago and the hog herd has stagnated due to weak profitability, foreign soybeans remain essential, and record imports are anticipated between April and June 2025 as Brazil’s large crop arrives. China has been signaling intentions to reduce soymeal usage in feed since at least 2018, when hog diets typically included around 20% soymeal and 70–75% corn; a 2022 government report noted that soymeal’s share had declined to 15.3% in 2021 from 17.8% in 2017, saving about 11 million metric tons of soymeal, or roughly 14 million tons of soybeans. In April 2023, Beijing proposed a sub-13% target for 2025, with analysts suggesting this could reduce soybean imports to 82 million tons—well below the current 2024–2025 estimate of 94.6 million tons. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), however, pegs China’s soybean imports for 2024–2025 much higher at 109 million tons, indicating China may be underreporting soymeal usage. Due to discrepancies between reported Chinese customs data and export shipment figures, the USDA began using global exporters’ data in 2024 to better estimate China’s true import demand; the 109-million-ton projection is a significant increase from 94.1 million tons in 2017–2018 and raises the possibility that China is stockpiling soybeans, potentially favoring U.S. supplies due to their superior storage properties compared to higher-moisture Brazilian beans. While China’s hog herd is expected to remain unchanged from 2017 levels in 2025, signaling no major increase in soybean demand, there is also little evidence of a sustained decline; pork production fell over 20% between 2019 and 2021 due to disease outbreaks and the COVID-19 pandemic, temporarily suppressing soybean imports, but since then, output has only modestly risen, constrained by weak sector profitability and a gradual shift in consumer preference toward alternative proteins. With pork consumption potentially peaking, both Chinese hog producers and Brazilian soybean exporters could face pressure, as excess supply and soft demand weigh on prices despite recent increases in production. The broader risk to global soybean trade may come not just from reduced soymeal use, but from China’s slowing economic growth, which is expected to continue in the coming years and could have a deeper and more lasting impact on global market dynamics.

 

 

5-May-2025

Time is running out for the U.S. to secure essential trade agreements with multiple countries—most notably China—to prevent what former Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, under President Donald Trump, has called an unsustainable tariff war, but for the American agricultural sector, the damage has already taken hold and the economic crisis is underway. U.S. farm exporters report severe consequences from global retaliation against Trump-era tariffs, particularly from China, which has led to widespread order cancellations and job losses, with the scale of disruptions clearly indicating a crisis, not just an approaching one. USDA data released Thursday showed China recently canceled 12,000 tons of pork—its largest such move since 2020—while exporters of goods like wood pulp, paperboard, and grass seed face major setbacks, including product being stranded in warehouses, held in demurrage, or already en route to China with no guarantee of acceptance. The Port of Oakland, a critical hub that handles nearly equal volumes of imports and exports and serves as the nation’s leading gateway for refrigerated agricultural shipments, is directly threatened by tariff retaliation, which could shrink California’s market share in Asia for high-value perishables like almonds, beef, pork, and dairy. Thousands of local union jobs—dockworkers, truck drivers, warehouse staff—depend on Oakland’s shipping activity, which is now at risk as Chinese demand evaporates without any replacement market of similar scale. Prices on some goods have dropped 20%, inventories are swelling, and future investment planning is uncertain. A forage exporter reported 68 blank sailings after the April 2025 tariff announcement, severely limiting shipping options, with remaining space priced too high for low-margin items like hay. Ship traffic from China to the U.S. has sharply declined—down over 22% week-over-week and 44% year-over-year as of April 14—and this fall, the SHIPS Act will add more pressure by imposing over $1.5 million in port fees on Chinese-made ships, excluding bulk but not containerized agriculture exports. Since containerized goods account for roughly 25% of U.S. agricultural exports by volume and over 55% by value—including beef, poultry, dairy, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and processed foods—industry leaders are urgently pushing for exemptions to avoid further damage.

 

 

30-April-2025

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rose slightly on Wednesday, marking their first gain in three sessions as bargain-hunting lent support, though gains were limited by beneficial rainfall in the U.S. crop belt, while corn and soybeans declined under pressure from fast-paced U.S. planting progress and ongoing trade tensions with China, as planting continues smoothly in the U.S. Midwest and recent rains are aiding winter wheat in the Plains—both bearish signals in a market where demand remains uncertain due to the trade war’s impact on U.S. grain and oilseed exports to China; the most-active CBOT wheat contract was up 0.1% at $5.26 a bushel, while soybeans fell 0.6% to $10.47 and corn slipped 0.1% to $4.70, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting on Monday that 24% of the corn crop had been planted as of Sunday, just one percentage point below analyst expectations but ahead of the five-year average of 22%, and soybean planting stood at 18%, beating both the five-year average of 12% and the 17% analyst estimate, while the U.S.-China trade dispute continues to weigh on soybean export prospects as China looks to reduce grain use in animal feed to around 60% and cut soymeal inclusion to roughly 10%, and additional pressure on corn and soybean prices came from favorable crop conditions in South America, where recent showers have eased drought stress in Brazil’s safrinha corn areas and a dry period in Argentina is expected to aid corn and soybean harvest operations following earlier heavy rains.

 

 

30-April-2025

Now in their eighth season, the U.S. Crop Watch producers are off to their fastest planting start ever for corn and soybeans, though ongoing trade tensions with China, the top buyer of U.S. soybeans and sorghum, have prompted a few farmers to shift more acres toward corn than originally planned; the Crop Watch project, which monitors 11 corn and 11 soybean fields across nine U.S. states—including two each in Iowa and Illinois—has featured the same producers and locations since expanding to 11 participants in 2021, and as of Thursday, nine out of the 22 fields—five corn and four soybean—had been planted, the most by this point since the current format began, though further progress may pause temporarily as some farmers wait for topsoil to dry following recent rain, with additional planting planned for next week; U.S. farmers are already expected to cut soybean acreage at the steepest rate in 18 years due to weak prices, and recent U.S.-China trade friction has added uncertainty in regions of the Corn Belt not tied to strict corn-soybean rotations, with the North Dakota producer switching some soybean acres to corn and barley, and the Kansas producer swapping sorghum acres for corn amid sluggish domestic and Chinese demand, while one other grower added corn acres for unrelated reasons and the rest made no changes; the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 2025 survey showed planned corn acreage at 95.3 million, the highest in 12 years, with speculation that the final total could exceed that and come at soybeans’ expense, and as of Thursday, four producers reported normal planting speeds, three noted normal-to-fast progress, and two described conditions as normal-to-slow, while USDA data showed 12% of U.S. corn and 8% of soybeans had been planted by Sunday, both slightly ahead of average; when asked about their top concern for the 2025 growing season, Crop Watch producers unanimously pointed to weather, as steady production costs and low commodity prices mean strong yields are essential for profitability, and while recent rains helped, some western areas remain dry, raising concern amid forecasts calling for potential summer drought in the western Corn Belt, where growers report good planting conditions but lingering dryness, and although trade policy uncertainty remains a concern for some, the main focus for producers is achieving strong output, with continued updates expected as market conditions evolve, especially if new trade or biofuel policies are introduced.

 

 

30-April-2025

Time is running out for the U.S. to secure trade agreements with numerous countries, most notably China, to avoid what U.S. President Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has called an unsustainable tariff war, but for the U.S. farming sector, the economic fallout has already taken hold, with agricultural exporters reporting that retaliatory responses to Trump’s tariffs are severely harming business through declining Chinese demand, canceled orders, and layoffs, as the volume of canceled agricultural purchases has reached crisis levels, highlighted by U.S. Department of Agriculture data showing China’s largest cancellation of pork shipments since 2020, halting 12,000 tons, while a wood pulp and paperboard exporter reported 6,400 metric tons put on hold in a warehouse and 15 railcars delayed under demurrage, and a grass seed exporter noted that Chinese customers canceled eight loads just two weeks before shipment, even though ships had already been booked, all of which is adding pressure on the Port of Oakland, a key agricultural export hub that is now seeing the effects of falling cargo volumes due to both declining imports and retaliatory export losses, raising concerns over local job security as Oakland, which relies on a near-equal balance of imports and exports and handles most of Northern California’s containerized cargo, fears market share losses to key destinations like Japan, Taiwan, China, and South Korea, especially for perishable and high-value products; exporters warn there are no quick replacements for China’s demand, and price declines are already evident, with one lumber exporter reporting a 20% drop in product value, slowing purchases from suppliers and reducing production, while a forage exporter supplying hay and straw overseas noted 68 blank sailings since Trump’s tariff announcement on 2 April 2025, limiting its ability to secure ship space as China-to-U.S. ship traffic dropped 22.15% week over week and 44% year over year through 14 April 2025, and booking demand for imports from China continues to fall, with one major hay exporter forced to reroute shipments to markets like Japan, Dubai, Taiwan, and a few Chinese ports at a high cost, prompting the company to halt all orders and begin layoffs, warning that the current policy direction is unsustainable; meanwhile, agriculture faces an additional challenge with the SHIPS Act measures introduced by the U.S. Trade Representative, which will impose port fees of over $1.5 million on Chinese-made ships calling at U.S. ports starting in the fall, and although bulk agriculture has been excluded, containerized agriculture has not, raising alarms since the majority of high-value U.S. agricultural exports—such as refrigerated meat, produce, dairy, processed foods, cotton, nuts, paper, soybeans for human use, and forage—are shipped in containers, prompting ongoing efforts to secure a broader exemption, especially since containerized agriculture accounts for approximately 25% of volume and nearly 55% of the total export value, based on U.S. trade data.

 

 

29-April-2025

Speculators held on to bullish positions in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn and soybeans last week, driven by optimism that U.S. trade discussions with key partners might progress and potentially boost grain exports, although rapid spring planting in the U.S. and favorable crop outlooks in South America are not offering strong price support, and overall uncertainty persists as no tangible outcomes have emerged from U.S. trade talks; managed funds have maintained a net long position in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures and options since November, but for the week ending April 22, that position was trimmed to 112,805 contracts from 124,573 the previous week, with the adjustment notable for marking the largest weekly addition of gross short positions in six months, though a substantial number of new gross long positions were also added, reflecting mixed sentiment; in soybeans, both long and short positions increased, but the bulls had a slight advantage as managed funds raised their net long position in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybeans by roughly 5,000 contracts to 31,067 futures and options contracts, while Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soybean futures were unchanged for the week ending April 22 but rose 1.3% over the last three sessions, reaching the most-active contract’s highest level since early February; U.S. soybeans remain a key focus in the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict as they represent the country’s top export to China, and although elevated tariffs have raised hopes for a resolution, China denied on Friday that talks are currently underway, contradicting statements from the U.S., while reports on Thursday indicated that Brazil is set to export more soybeans to China in 2025 amid the trade dispute, though the increase is also supported by Brazil’s record soybean harvest; corn and soybean markets found additional support from Japan, which is reportedly considering increasing imports from the U.S. as part of trade negotiations, with Japan being the second-largest importer of U.S. corn and fifth-largest of U.S. soybeans; during the same week, managed funds boosted their net long in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil by approximately 10,000 contracts to 50,899, with sentiment shifting repeatedly in recent months due to uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy, though strong global demand and solid U.S. exports have recently underpinned prices, and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soybean oil futures broke above 50 cents per pound for the first time since December 2023; bearish sentiment remains dominant in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean meal, with managed funds increasing their net short to 73,511 contracts as of April 22, up about 4,000 on the week, and they have maintained a net short in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures and options for a record 147 consecutive weeks—far surpassing the previous 100-week streak from 2015 to 2017—although funds were modest net buyers of Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat for the third straight week, leaving the net short position at 89,929 contracts, which remains well above the seasonal average, while Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July wheat futures declined 1% in the week ended April 22 and slid another 1% over the last three sessions due to favorable U.S. winter wheat weather and recent contract lows in European wheat futures, and in the coming week, traders will closely monitor U.S. planting progress following scattered rains across the Corn Belt, with the five-year averages for this point in the season at 22% for corn and 12% for soybeans.

 

 

29-April-2025

Corn and soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) declined on Tuesday as rapid progress in U.S. planting and ongoing trade tensions with China, the world’s largest farm goods importer, weighed on both markets, while wheat prices edged higher on bargain-buying after Monday’s sharp losses, though gains were limited by forecasts of beneficial rainfall in the U.S. winter wheat regions; the most-active corn contract dropped 0.4% to $4.81-1/2 a bushel and soybeans slipped 0.3% to $10.59-3/4 a bushel, while wheat rose 0.5% to $5.33-1/2 a bushel after falling 2.5% in the previous session, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting that 24% of the corn crop was planted as of Sunday, slightly below analysts’ average expectations but ahead of the five-year average of 22%, and soybean planting was 18% complete, well above the five-year average of 12%; U.S. farmers are projected to increase corn acreage to a 12-year high in 2025 and reduce soybean planting to a five-year low due to the ongoing trade dispute with China, which remains the top global soybean buyer; forecasts show that parts of the U.S. Plains, including Texas and Oklahoma, may receive six to eight inches of rain over the next 10 days, likely supporting yields for hard red winter wheat used in bread production, and after Monday’s close, the USDA rated 49% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition, up from 45% a week earlier and above the expected 47%, while commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT wheat, corn, and soymeal futures, but were net buyers of soybean and soyoil contracts.

 

 

28-April-2025

The global wheat market narrative has recently shifted, although it may have gone largely unnoticed, as exportable world wheat supplies for 2024–2025 are no longer forecast to fall to multiyear lows, a somewhat expected development given recent trends, but this relief might be temporary since poor harvest prospects in Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about 30% of global wheat exports, could cause the tightening supply concerns to reemerge in 2025–2026 and possibly with greater impact; two months ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected that the 2024–2025 global wheat stocks-to-use (SU) among major exporting countries would reach a 17-year low of 14.56%, but recent updates have revised that figure upward to 15.89%, now the second highest level in the past six years, largely due to significant reductions in China’s wheat import estimates over the past three months; although this updated stocks-to-use (SU) estimate remains below the longer-term average of over 18% recorded in the late 2010s, it is important to note that for at least three consecutive years, USDA initially forecast decade-low stocks-to-use (SU) ratios only for the estimates to improve as the marketing years progressed, with the 2020–2021 stocks-to-use (SU) of 14.74% still standing as the lowest since the 2007–2008 period and serving as a critical benchmark heading into 2025–2026; USDA’s Ukraine attache recently estimated Ukraine’s 2025–2026 wheat harvest at 17.9 million tonnes, the lowest in 13 years and down 23% compared to the previous year due to extremely dry planting conditions and poor profitability reducing the sown area, while Russian agencies predict their wheat harvest for 2025–2026 between 79.7 million and 82.5 million tonnes, with favorable weather potentially improving the final output; early signs nonetheless warrant caution, especially as Ukrainian wheat exports for 2025–2026 are expected to be less than half of the record volumes seen previously, and Black Sea trade continues to face instability following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, mainly affecting Ukrainian exports; while Russian food and fertilizer exports are not directly sanctioned by Western countries, Moscow insists that broader sanctions must be lifted on companies involved in those sectors for any cooperation on maritime security, although shipment data shows little disruption, with Russia achieving record wheat exports in the 2022–2023 and 2023–2024 marketing years and exporting record portions of their harvests; a smaller Russian crop will lower 2024–2025 wheat exports to three-year lows, yet the proportion of the harvest being exported will stay high due to Russia’s competitive pricing; discussions about a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine were underway on Tuesday, but any resolution would have little impact on the 2025–2026 wheat output as most of the crop has already been sown; in the United States, wheat plantings for 2025–2026 are projected to fall by 1.6% compared to the previous year, including a 55-year low in high-protein spring wheat area, and as of Sunday, U.S. winter wheat conditions were slightly worse than last year; Argentina could achieve a record 2025–2026 wheat harvest if its temporary export tax cut is extended beyond June, incentivizing greater planting, while Canada plans to increase its wheat area, and parts of Australia could see their wheat crop shrink by 16% due to dryness; in the European Union, soft wheat yields are forecast to rise by 8% compared to last year; since Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, and the United States together make up about 54% of global wheat exports, these regions will be critical to monitor when the USDA releases its initial 2025–2026 projections on May 12.

 

 

28-April-2025

Japan is weighing the option of increasing its soybean imports from the United States as part of tariff negotiations, with the government potentially encouraging private sector companies, which manage soybean imports, to expand purchases from the U.S. amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China; in 2024, nearly half of U.S. soybean exports, worth around $12.8 billion, were destined for China, but last month China retaliated against additional tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump by suspending the import licenses of three U.S. firms; Japan’s chief tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is set to visit the United States on April 30 for a second round of talks with his counterpart, following an earlier request to have the tariffs lifted.

 

 

25-April-2025

In mid-April 2025, weather conditions across most of Ukraine were largely favorable for the development of winter and spring grains, as farmers actively continued sowing spring crops, with the future harvest heavily reliant on sufficient heat and moisture for successful germination and growth; the arrival of effective warmth from 14 April 2025 supported the activation of growth processes and provided favorable conditions for spring vegetation, while productive moisture reserves remained adequate despite a lack of significant rainfall during the month, a positive sign given Ukraine’s recent struggles with soil moisture deficits in May and June; the Ukrainian farm ministry reported that as of 18 April 2025, 1.2 million hectares of grain had been sown.

 

 

25-April-2025

Argentina’s primary farming regions are forecasted to experience mostly dry conditions over the next seven days, which should help accelerate the delayed 2024/25 soybean harvest that has struggled with saturated fields, as heavy rainfall during March and early April 2025 pushed harvest progress below the five-year average and jeopardized grain yields; with high atmospheric pressure expected to dominate, clear skies and minimal rainfall should prevail across much of the agricultural belt, supporting a projected soybean harvest of 48.6 million metric tons, while ongoing delays have also slowed soybean sales, with only 23.4% of the 2024/25 crop sold by 16 April 2025—the slowest pace for that date in the past decade—at a time when Argentina continues to lead global exports of soybean oil and meal and remains a significant producer of corn, wheat, and beef.

 

 

25-April-2025

China’s grain imports from Brazil jumped 35.77% year-on-year in March 2025 compared to March 2024, emphasizing food security as a core element of China’s strategic trade priorities. With U.S. grain increasingly subject to tariffs and trade restrictions, China has significantly expanded its agricultural trade with Brazil. Although part of the increase aligns with normal seasonal buying patterns, it is largely driven by a broader geopolitical strategy to lessen dependence on American supply chains. This shift is boosting activity in the supramax and panamax bulk carrier markets involved in transatlantic grain shipping and highlights China’s efforts to safeguard its food supply against a volatile global trade backdrop. It also cements Brazil’s position as a key agricultural export partner in the evolving landscape of global trade realignment.

 

 

24-April-2025

Chicago soybean futures extended their gains for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, driven by renewed hopes that the U.S. and China might ease their trade tensions and revive American soybean exports to China; corn futures stabilized following a decline on Wednesday due to a stronger U.S. dollar, while wheat prices continued to weaken as favorable rains in U.S. and Black Sea growing areas improved supply prospects; the most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 0.4% to $10.54-1/4 a bushel, approaching Wednesday’s intraday high of $10.57-1/2, the highest since 24 February 2025; China, the world’s largest soybean importer, has imposed tariffs that make U.S. soybeans prohibitively expensive, but recent comments from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinting at a willingness to de-escalate trade tensions have encouraged speculative buying; the Trump administration’s move to exempt China-built ships carrying U.S. crops from new port fees has also eased export concerns; market sentiment suggests that Trump’s tough tariff rhetoric may have been a strategic bluff aimed at negotiating better terms; adding to the optimism, soybean stockpiles at Chinese ports are gradually shrinking, while in Argentina, dry weather across key farming regions is expected to accelerate the delayed 2024/25 soybean harvest; elsewhere, CBOT corn edged up 0.2% to $4.80 a bushel, while wheat slipped 0.3% to $5.42 a bushel.

 

 

22-April-2025

Chicago wheat futures posted slight gains on Tuesday, driven by concerns that ongoing dry weather could threaten U.S. winter wheat crop yields. Corn prices moved higher as wet conditions in the U.S. Midwest delayed fieldwork, while soybeans also saw a mild increase. Support for wheat came from a deterioration in crop condition over the past week. The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 0.2% to $5.53-1/4 per bushel after falling nearly 2% in the previous session. Corn climbed 0.2% to $4.90-3/4 per bushel, while soybeans advanced 0.4% to $10.45-3/4 per bushel. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated 45% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition, down from 50% a year earlier, as dryness continued to impact growing regions in the U.S. Plains. Analysts had expected the rating to remain unchanged at 47%. In the U.S. Midwest, forecasts of continued rainfall are likely to hinder corn planting progress, even though recent figures show farmers are ahead of the seasonal average. As of April 20, farmers had planted 12% of the corn crop, surpassing the five-year average of 10%, according to the USDA’s weekly crop progress report. Soybean planting also showed progress, with 8% of the crop in the ground, above the five-year average of 5%. On the global front, Russian wheat export prices edged lower last week, influenced in part by optimism surrounding a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content were estimated at $250 to $252 per ton free-on-board (FOB), slightly down from the previous week’s range of $250 to $253.

 

 

18-April-2025

This week’s spotlight is on the changing dynamics of soybean dry bulk flows from Brazil and the United States to China, following the newest round of tariffs amid intensifying trade tensions, with voyage data indicating a structural shift in global soybean trade and highlighting China’s growing preference for Brazilian imports. Over recent years, Brazil has firmly established itself as the leading soybean supplier to China, a shift driven by broader macroeconomic trends, particularly the prolonged trade dispute between the United States and China. Brazil’s strength lies in its record-high harvests, competitive pricing, and absence of trade barriers, making it a more stable and cost-efficient partner to meet China’s expanding soybean needs. U.S. soybean exports to China, which historically followed a seasonal pattern with peaks in the first and last quarters, are now showing disruption, as March 2025 saw volumes drop to around 2 million tonnes—substantially lower than during the same timeframes in 2023 and 2024—underscoring the ongoing effects of the trade war. As tariff pressures and geopolitical uncertainty persist, Chinese buyers are increasingly turning to Brazil, resulting in a consistent erosion of the U.S. share in the market and leaving American farmers and agribusinesses facing reduced demand, falling prices, and increasing financial strain. In contrast, Brazil’s soybean exports to China have surged in 2025, with March and April shipments exceeding 10 million tonnes, significantly above historical levels, aligning with China’s seasonal needs and further strengthening Brazil’s role as a dominant supplier. This sustained volume into mid-year signals more than a temporary trade change; it marks deeper economic integration between China and Brazil and positions Brazil as a pivotal force in the global agricultural supply chain, reshaping the soybean trade landscape. At the same time, sentiment in the capesize bulk carrier freight market is softening due to a rising number of ballasters, and early indicators also point to weakening conditions in the panamax bulk carrier segment, with capesize bulk carrier freight rates from Brazil to China closing at $19 per tonne, reflecting a 20% drop from the previous month. Panamax bulk carrier freight rates from the Continent to China held near $30 per tonne, showing a 6% decrease month-on-month and a 30% decrease compared to last month. Supramax bulk carrier freight rates for the Indonesia–East Coast India (ECI) route remained firm at about $9 per tonne, representing a 5% monthly increase, while handysize bulk carrier freight rates from the North Pacific (NOPAC) to the Far East slipped slightly under $30 per tonne, showing a 6% decline month-on-month. The latest ballaster data points to continued momentum for capesize bulk carrier activity in Southeast Africa, while panamax bulk carrier trends face downward pressure, with the third week of April 2025 marked by a downward trajectory in panamax bulk carrier tonne-day growth and a sharp increase in supramax bulk carrier activity, alongside a significant rise in dry bulk port congestion in China across all bulk carrier size segments.

 

17-April-2025

India’s wheat stocks stored in government warehouses jumped 57% to a three-year high at the start of the new crop year this month, according to official data, easing supply concerns that had driven domestic wheat prices to a record high earlier in 2025. The increased opening stocks are expected to help the federal government contain potential price spikes later in the year, even if the Food Corporation of India (FCI), the state-run stockpiler, fails to meet its 2025 domestic wheat procurement goal. Wheat reserves in state storage facilities stood at 11.8 million metric tons as of April 1, well above the Indian government’s target of 7.46 million metric tons and over 4 million tons more than the same time last year. Even if the 2025 wheat procurement target is missed as it was in 2024, there will still be ample stock available for open market sales. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has set a target of purchasing 31 million tons of wheat from farmers in 2025. In 2024, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) aimed to buy between 30 and 32 million tons but managed to acquire only 26.6 million tons. Poor harvests over the past three years and reduced purchases by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) had pushed wheat prices higher and raised speculation that India could be forced to import wheat for the first time in seven years, though the Indian government has so far resisted calls for imports. The wheat procurement season in 2025 has started strong, with Food Corporation of India (FCI) purchases already outpacing levels seen during the same period last year. As of April 1, India’s government-held rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, stood at a record 63.09 million tons, far exceeding the Indian government’s target of 13.6 million tons. These higher rice stocks provide India with the flexibility to increase exports without affecting domestic availability. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) is currently holding significantly more rice than is necessary, and the Indian government will now aim to promote exports to reduce the need for additional procurement from the upcoming crop. India is the largest exporter of rice in the world and accounts for about 40% of global rice trade.

 

 

11-April-2025

China is projected to receive approximately 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during April-May 2025, despite the imposition of higher tariffs on American goods that threaten to curtail the flow of what is China’s largest agricultural import from the United States. A significant portion of these shipments were acquired by state-owned stockpiling firm Sinograin, which is expected to bear the additional tariff costs. However, Sinograin may be compelled to sell the soybeans at discounted prices within the domestic market due to competition from Brazil, the world’s leading soybean producer, offering cheaper alternatives. Chinese grain traders do not anticipate cancellations or major disruptions to these shipments, as a government-owned entity executed the purchases. However, Chinese grain traders cannot sell U.S. soybeans inclusive of the duty; they will have to absorb the tariff themselves. With China being the world’s largest importer of soybeans and the United States the second-largest producer, the intensifying trade tensions between the two nations could significantly impact global crop trade flows as both countries continue to raise tariffs. Sinograin commonly sources U.S. soybeans for reserves, largely due to their relatively lower moisture content. In 2024, the United States exported $12.84 billion worth of soybeans to China. In early March 2024, China imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. soybean imports following a similar tariff measure by U.S. President Donald Trump targeting Chinese products. Over 30 shipments—amounting to roughly 2 million metric tons—scheduled to arrive in the near future will be subject to this 10% duty. On Friday, China introduced an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, in retaliation to U.S. duties enacted on April 2. Based on Kpler data, 15 vessels transporting around 800,000 metric tons are expected to arrive after 13 May 2025 and will be subject to a combined 44% tariff. As of 27 March 2025, nearly 600,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans purchased for delivery within the marketing year ending August 2025 had not yet been shipped, leaving uncertainty around whether these cargoes will eventually ship or be cancelled. China imported a record 105 million metric tons of soybeans in 2024, and top supplier Brazil is anticipated to ship a record volume of soybeans to China in Q2 2025. With Brazil forecasted to produce a record soybean crop in 2025, China is expected to fulfill most of its soybean demand from Brazil and Argentina in the coming months.

 

 

10-April-2025

China has imposed a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports as a countermeasure to the recent U.S. protectionist trade policies, starting April 10th. This increase in tariffs is expected to significantly affect key U.S. dry bulk exports, especially soybeans and corn. Data from Q1 2025 shows that China is responsible for 52.8% of U.S. grain exports to Far East destinations, followed by Japan at 23.3% and South Korea at 9.0%. These shipments primarily utilize panamax bulk carriers (59.2%), with supramax bulk carriers (34.2%) also playing a significant role. The main types of cargo affected are soybeans (43.5%), corn (29.5%), and wheat (20.5%), all of which are heavily dependent on Chinese demand. In terms of quarterly performance, there has been a notable decline in U.S. grain shipments to Far East destinations: a 29.69% decrease quarter-on-quarter (Q1 2025 vs Q4 2024) and an 18.62% drop year-on-year (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024). This downward trend is expected to worsen with the new tariffs discouraging Chinese purchasers and possibly rerouting these shipments to other markets like Southeast Asia. However, these alternative markets might offer lower profit margins and may not have the capacity to absorb the volumes that were previously directed to China. After China declared retaliatory tariffs of 34% on U.S. imports, covering crucial agricultural products, grain markets responded with a swift decline. U.S. soybean futures fell by 4%, as grain traders predicted a substantial decrease in Chinese demand. The tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, along with China’s strategy to reduce purchases of foreign grains such as barley and sorghum, exerted additional downward pressure on prices. Concurrently, grain exporters like Brazil have experienced a surge in demand, enhancing their market presence and shielding Chinese buyers from disruptions in U.S. supplies.

 

 

9-April-2025

Ships carrying grain and agro-industrial products will not be able to dock or depart from Argentina’s Rosario agro-port hub on Thursday due to a CGT union strike protesting government policies. The strike, organized by the CGT which encompasses various Argentine unions, is set to commence at midnight on Thursday (0300 GMT) and will continue for 24 hours. Guillermo Wade, the manager of the Chamber of Port and Maritime Activities, explained, “We will not be able to dock and moor the ships,” attributing this to the strike actions of the Maritime Workers Union and the river navigators’ union. Although ships already at berth can load grains and their derivatives, they will not be permitted to depart, Wade further noted. Additionally, the two soybean oil plant workers’ unions declared on Tuesday their plans to participate in the CGT’s strike, which opposes the austerity measures imposed by the libertarian President Javier Milei’s government. Argentina holds the position as the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, the third-largest corn exporter, and a significant wheat supplier.

 

 

7-April-2025

Historically, the United States dominated the global grain and oilseed trade, but its leadership in corn exports is now being challenged by Brazil, which previously surpassed the U.S. as the leading soybean exporter. The U.S.’s stronghold on global exports of corn, soybean, and wheat is weaker than ever before. In response to this slipping dominance, U.S. President Donald Trump announced comprehensive reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners last Wednesday, a move that U.S. farmers supported during the last election despite the risks. These trade barriers could erode the U.S.’s historical advantage in markets it once dominated. Competing grain producers have improved their agricultural and export capacities over the years, often benefiting from U.S. agricultural setbacks. In the past five years, the U.S. share of global corn exports has hit a record low of 31%, a significant drop from 61% two decades ago and a peak of 80% in the late 1970s. This decline was most noticeable from the late 2000s to the early 2010s, a period marked by the global financial crisis and several major U.S. crop failures. Meanwhile, Brazil, now the second-largest corn exporter, has increased its share from 5% twenty years ago to 22% today. Similarly, the U.S. contribution to global soybean exports has significantly decreased to a record-low 27%, down from more than 80% in the 1970s. Since 2012-13, when Brazil took over as the top soybean exporter, its share has grown from 39% a decade ago to 55% now. Until about a decade ago, the U.S. was the leading wheat exporter; now, it ranks fourth. The pinnacle of U.S. wheat export dominance occurred in January 1980 when then-President Jimmy Carter publicly canceled 17 million metric tons of U.S. grain export contracts with the Soviet Union due to their invasion of Afghanistan, initiating what is known as the U.S. grain embargo. At that time, the U.S. was responsible for 44% of global wheat exports, a figure that has now plummeted to a record-low 11%. President Carter’s actions reflected a desire to shield American farmers and boost domestic agricultural use, sentiments echoed by Trump. Despite the embargo’s intent, U.S. intelligence in 1981 determined it had minimal impact on Soviet grain reserves, as the Soviets managed to secure more grain from other sources than expected—a situation reminiscent of recent developments in the soybean market where Brazil has exceeded export expectations. The U.S. remains a leading corn producer and holds the second and fourth positions in global soybean and wheat production, respectively. However, its production shares have also reached historic lows, with corn at 31%, down from 41% two decades ago, and soybeans and wheat at 28% and 6%, respectively, from higher percentages in the past. In contrast, Russia has increased its wheat production by over 70% in the last decade, now accounting for 11% of global output, up from 7%. Brazil has also significantly boosted its soybean and corn production by about 85% and 55%, respectively, capitalizing on favorable market conditions and profitability. This shift illustrates that a substantial portion of global grain production now occurs outside the U.S., and these producers are poised to respond if U.S. trade policies prove counterproductive.

 

 

2-April-2025

Brazilian soybean traders are set to ship unprecedented volumes in Q1 2025, fueled by robust demand from China, the world’s top importer, amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. The current soybean shipments from Brazil have not yet been affected by the new trade war dynamics. However, any escalation is likely to shift more Chinese demand towards Brazil, similar to the situation observed in 2018. As of March 25, Brazilian traders had loaded 22.8 million tons of soybeans onto bulk carriers, with 17.7 million tons destined for China. These amounts set new records despite logistical challenges and a delayed start to Brazil’s soybean harvest season. The surge in Brazil’s Q1 2025 soybean shipments to China is reflective of early purchases totaling about 33 million tons made by December 2024, ahead of the new crop’s availability and when Chinese crushing markets were active. This volume represents an increase of 7 million tons over the previous year at the same time. Brazilian farmers typically plant soybeans starting in September and begin harvesting in early January, varying by region, with ports becoming increasingly active from February. Currently, the US-China trade war has minimal impact on these shipments, although the advance purchasing activities by China in 2024 suggest that Chinese importers were anticipating potential disruptions from a Trump election victory. Brazil is expected to harvest over 170 million tons of soy in 2025. Despite the longstanding US-China trade tensions, the demand from China for Brazilian soy has consistently grown. Indeed, Brazil’s soy shipments to China for the first quarter broke the previous year’s record, reaching approximately 18 million tons, which is about 2 million tons more than the prior year. The trade tensions between the US and China typically escalate in the latter half of the year, a period when the U.S. usually increases its soy sales to China. In the initial months of 2025, January and February, China accounted for 79% of Brazilian soybean exports, up from 75% during the same months in 2024.

 

 

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